Futures market pricing in two. I tend to subscribe to the two increases unless things really heat up. BTW - the Atlanta FED's GDP NOW tracker has increased to 3.3% for 1Q GDP growth. Long(er) end: looking for a drift up (loosely, high 2s by y/e) in interest rates as this expansion continues but not as much as most think. There are just too many headwinds to the 10 year (2.62% as I type) getting out of hand. You still have depressed Geo-yields (Germany 10 year at 0.57%, Japan at 0.07%) that make our yields attractive, the hunt for yield by pension plans, sovereign funds, insurance companies that make them almost indiscriminate buyers, and at say 3%, bonds then providing a decent alternative to equities (unless inflation gets spun up).